By Oracle Zents
ABEOKUTA – In the high-stakes theater of Ogun State politics, history doesn’t just repeat itself; it renovates. As the dust of the 2023 elections settles, the political atmosphere in Ogun Central is already thick with the scent of a brewing “Silent War.” At the heart of this confrontation is a delicate chess game involving three titans: the veteran Aremo Olusegun Osoba, the incumbent Governor Dapo Abiodun, and the former Governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun.
The Godfather’s Gambit
The legendary rivalry between Osoba and Amosun—allies in 2015, bitter foes by 2019—is entering a new, more personal chapter. Insiders within the “Rock City” suggest that Aremo Osoba, the journalist-turned-statesman who governed Ogun across two eras, is preparing to solidify his family legacy. The move? Positioning his son, Hon. Olumide Osoba, as the consensus All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate for the Ogun Central Senatorial seat in 2027.
Olumide, who currently represents Abeokuta South Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives, is a man often described as soft-spoken and loyal. However, critics point to a “quiet” legislative record in Abuja, questioning if his push for the Red Chamber is fueled by merit or the weight of his father’s surname.
The Amosun Factor
The emergence of the younger Osoba creates a direct collision course with Senator Ibikunle Amosun. Amosun, who held the Ogun Central seat from 2003–2007 and again from 2019–2023, remains a formidable force. His signature projects—the bridges, the roads, and the institutional kingships—are etched into the landscape of the district.
Yet, in the current APC hierarchy, the signals from “Bourdillon” (the party’s power center) suggest a preference for “new blood” over yesterday’s warlords. Reports suggest Amosun may have been outmaneuvered by an unwritten agreement regarding Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola (Yayi), leaving the former governor in a precarious position as he eyes a return to relevance.
The Governor’s Watchful Eye
Watching from the hilltop office at Oke-Mosan is Governor Dapo Abiodun. In 2019, it was Osoba’s structure that provided the platform for Abiodun to defeat Amosun’s anointed candidate. By backing Olumide, Abiodun could effectively “bury” Amosun’s local influence while keeping the elder Osoba as a powerful ally.
However, the Governor faces his own internal pressures. The incumbent Senator, Shuaib Afolabi Salisu (SAS), a former Chief of Staff to Abiodun, has been a visible player in the Senate, recently making headlines for his legislative intervention regarding national economic sovereignty in the cement industry. Will the Governor sacrifice a loyalist like Salisu to satisfy a dynastic alliance?
A Field of Contenders
Ogun Central is not merely a family heirloom; it is a complex tapestry of Egba and Egbado interests. Other names have flickered in the political firmament, including:
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- Professor Yemi Oke: A legal luminary and Senior Advocate whose brief interest in the seat sparked conversations about academic excellence in governance.
- Former Senators Obadara and Tejuoso: Veterans who understand the mechanics of the Red Chamber and the expectations of the Egba elite.
The ADC Wildcard
While the APC titans clash, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) remains a lurking shadow. If the “coronation” of a consensus candidate alienates the grassroots, or if the “dynasty” narrative gains too much negative traction among civil servants and traders at Itoku and Lafenwa, a crack may open for the opposition to penetrate the APC stronghold.
As 2027 approaches, the question remains: Is Ogun Central ready for a legacy transfer, or will the “drums of revolution” sound against the godfathers? In Abeokuta, the only certainty is that the war has already begun.
