The Tinubu Enigma: Power, Strategy and the Nigerian StatePart Three: The Kingmaker Doctrine—By Lanre Ogundipe

In the previous installment of this series, Lagos was examined as the political laboratory where Bola Ahmed Tinubu constructed the foundations of his influence. Through fiscal reforms, governance restructuring and the gradual cultivation of political networks, Lagos evolved from a state administration into the base of a durable political structure. By the time Tinubu left office as governor in 2007, the system he helped build had demonstrated a rare quality in Nigerian politics: it survived the exit of its founder.
Yet Lagos alone does not explain the full Tinubu phenomenon.

The more intriguing phase of his political career began after his governorship ended. Instead of retreating into the background as many former governors do, Tinubu expanded his influence beyond Lagos and gradually emerged as one of the most consequential political strategists of the Fourth Republic. In this period, he acquired a reputation that would dominate political discourse for more than a decade: that of the kingmaker.

The term was not accidental. It reflected the perception that Tinubu possessed an unusual ability to shape political outcomes without occupying the highest offices himself.
Understanding how this reputation emerged requires examining the mechanics of influence in Nigeria’s evolving democratic environment.

Following the restoration of civilian rule in 1999, Nigerian politics entered a prolonged phase dominated by a single national party. The People’s Democratic Party controlled the federal government and governed the majority of states. Opposition politics existed but remained fragmented, often divided by regional rivalries and leadership disputes.

Tinubu’s political environment therefore required a different strategic approach. Rather than relying on ideological mobilisation or personal popularity alone, he gradually refined a method centred on coalition management and network expansion.

The Lagos political structure provided the starting point.
From that base, Tinubu strengthened alliances across the Southwest, consolidating political influence within a region that historically played a decisive role in Nigeria’s electoral dynamics.

Party organisation, electoral coordination and the cultivation of loyal political actors helped establish a network that extended beyond Lagos itself.
Over time, this regional consolidation produced a broader political role.

One of the earliest demonstrations of this influence appeared in the emergence of political figures who rose to prominence through the Lagos system. The succession of Babatunde Fashola as governor of Lagos after Tinubu’s tenure drew national attention. Fashola’s technocratic style of governance and administrative reforms reinforced the perception that the Lagos political environment had developed a distinctive model of leadership cultivation.

The pattern continued as other political actors associated with the Lagos network assumed influential roles in regional politics. Gradually, Tinubu’s influence came to be seen not merely as the legacy of a former governor but as the centre of a political machine capable of producing leaders.

The concept of a kingmaker in democratic politics is not entirely new. In many political systems, influential figures operate as brokers of alliances, facilitators of coalitions and strategic organisers of electoral networks. Their influence lies less in holding office than in shaping the conditions under which others attain it.

Tinubu’s political role increasingly resembled this model.
Within the Southwest, he became a central figure in negotiating party alignments and coordinating opposition strategies. His ability to maintain relationships across multiple political actors allowed him to mediate disputes and sustain electoral cooperation among factions that might otherwise have competed against one another.

This capacity for alliance management would later prove decisive.
As the Fourth Republic matured, dissatisfaction with the dominance of a single ruling party began to grow across different regions of the country. Economic pressures, governance concerns and political rivalries gradually created conditions for opposition realignment.

The possibility of a national coalition capable of challenging the ruling party began to emerge.
It was within this shifting landscape that Tinubu’s kingmaker role became nationally visible.
Opposition parties in Nigeria had long struggled with fragmentation.

Multiple platforms existed, but their electoral strength was diluted by internal divisions and competing leadership ambitions. Tinubu became one of the figures advocating the consolidation of these disparate groups into a single political force capable of competing effectively at the national level.

The effort eventually produced one of the most significant political mergers in Nigeria’s democratic history.
In 2013, several opposition parties combined to form the All Progressives Congress. The merger brought together political actors from different regions and ideological backgrounds under a unified platform. For the first time since the return to civilian rule, a national opposition party possessed the organisational strength to challenge the ruling establishment.

Tinubu was widely regarded as one of the principal architects of this coalition.
The formation of the new party represented more than a routine political merger. It demonstrated the strategic value of the networks and alliances that had been cultivated over years of political engagement. Leaders who had previously operated within separate political platforms now found themselves part of a coordinated national project.
Coalition politics had replaced fragmentation.

The significance of this development became clear during the 2015 general election. The opposition alliance succeeded in achieving something unprecedented in Nigeria’s democratic history: defeating an incumbent ruling party at the federal level through the ballot box.

The election of Muhammadu Buhari as president marked a turning point in the country’s political trajectory.
Within the complex negotiations and alliances that produced that outcome, Tinubu’s influence was widely acknowledged. His ability to coordinate regional interests, manage coalition tensions and sustain political cooperation across diverse actors reinforced his reputation as a master strategist.

The kingmaker narrative had become firmly established.
Yet the kingmaker phase of Tinubu’s career contained an inherent tension. Political influence exercised behind the scenes carries advantages, but it also has limits. The strategist who helps others ascend to power inevitably confronts a question that political history often poses to power brokers.

What happens when the kingmaker decides to become king?
For many years, Tinubu’s role in national politics appeared to remain within the sphere of strategic influence rather than direct presidential ambition. He functioned as an organiser, negotiator and coalition builder. But political structures evolve, and ambitions often shift with changing circumstances.

The years leading to the 2023 presidential election would bring that transformation into focus.
By that time, Tinubu had spent decades constructing alliances, cultivating political networks and shaping electoral outcomes across multiple election cycles. The system that had once been built around Lagos had gradually expanded into a national network.

The strategist had become a central figure within the political establishment he helped shape.
When Tinubu eventually sought the presidency, he did so from a position that few Nigerian politicians had previously occupied. Unlike many candidates who rely primarily on popularity or elite endorsement, he possessed a long-established organisational base that extended across multiple regions.

The kingmaker had built a structure strong enough to support his own bid for power.
This transition represents one of the most intriguing transformations in Nigeria’s democratic history. Political brokers often remain behind the scenes, influencing outcomes without stepping into the arena themselves. Tinubu chose a different path.

After years of shaping the rise of other leaders, he entered the contest directly and emerged victorious.
The development invites a broader reflection on the nature of political power in the Fourth Republic.

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Tinubu’s career suggests that influence in Nigeria’s democratic environment often grows through networks rather than ideology, through alliances rather than solitary authority.
It also illustrates the strategic patience required to sustain influence over long periods of political change.

By the time he assumed the presidency, Tinubu had spent decades cultivating the alliances, structures and relationships that made his rise possible. The kingmaker phase of his career was therefore not an end in itself. It was part of a longer strategic journey.
That journey now raises the question that political history inevitably asks of influential leaders.

What happens when the strategist who mastered the politics of coalition building becomes the custodian of national power?
Answering that question requires examining the years during which Tinubu faced intense political attacks, internal party struggles and sustained criticism from opponents who viewed his

influence with deep suspicion.
Those battles — and the endurance they demanded — form the subject of the next installment in this series.

Lanre Ogundipe is a Public Affairs Analyst and former President of the Nigeria and African Union of Journalists. He writes from Abuja.