2027: Tinubu, APC Stakeholders Move for Consensus

​In a strategic move to solidify its grip on the South-West ahead of the 2027 general elections, the All Progressives Congress (APC) has reportedly moved toward a consensus arrangement for its governorship candidates in Lagos, Ogun, and Oyo States.

​The decisions emerged following a high-level meeting between President Bola Tinubu and key party stakeholders from the three states at his Lagos residence on Sunday night. The President, who hosted Vice President Kashim Shettima and 23 governors for the Eid el-Fitr celebrations, used the window to deliberate on the party’s succession plans.

​The Frontrunners

​According to sources familiar with the deliberations, the party has favored the following individuals to fly the APC flag in 2027:

​1.Lagos State: Dr. Obafemi Hamzat, the current Deputy Governor.

2.Ogun State: Senator Olamilekan Adeola (popularly known as Yayi), Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee.

3.Oyo State: Senator Sharafadeen Alli, representing Oyo South Senatorial District.

​The selection of these candidates was based on their perceived grassroots popularity and track records. However, the move has not been without internal friction.

​Intrigues in Lagos and Ogun

​In Lagos, the Minister of Education, Tunji Alausa, is reportedly still lobbying for the ticket, despite the leaning toward Hamzat. Other heavyweights in the mix include Femi Gbajabiamila, former Governor Akinwunmi Ambode, and Speaker Mudashiru Obasa.

​The situation in Ogun State appears more complex. The choice of Senator Adeola (Yayi) reportedly conflicts with the preference of Governor Dapo Abiodun, who is said to be backing Senator Shaibu Afolabi Salisu. Conversely, former Governor Olusegun Osoba is reportedly not in alignment with the Governor’s pick, further complicating the state’s internal dynamics.

​The Oyo Strategy

​In Oyo State, Senator Alli’s candidacy has gained significant traction, reportedly receiving the blessing of the Olubadan of Ibadan, Oba Rashidi Ladoja. To maintain harmony, the party is considering compensating other popular aspirants.

​For instance, Representative Remi Oseni, noted for his strong grassroots mobilization, may be offered the Oyo South Senate seat to step down for Alli. Discussions also suggest that Alli might serve a single term to allow the governorship to rotate outside the Ibadan zone by 2031.

​Concerns were raised regarding the Minister of Power, Bayo Adelabu. Stakeholders at the meeting suggested his current popularity might not be sufficient to unseat the machinery of the incumbent Governor Seyi Makinde, citing previous electoral outcomes.

​Consensus vs. Imposition

​The APC traditionally favors the consensus model, as provided for in the Electoral Act 2026 (amended). Proponents, including APC Deputy National Organising Secretary Nze Chidi Duru, argue that it fosters internal cohesion.

​However, the Nigerian Political Science Association (NPSA) and the Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP) have voiced concerns. Professor Hassan Saliu, President of the NPSA, warned that “consensus” in the Nigerian context often masks the “imposition” of candidates by party leaders, which could lead to internal dissent if not handled transparently.

​Timeline to 2027

​The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has already set the pace for the next cycle:

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1.Presidential/National Assembly Elections: January 16, 2027.

2.Governorship/State House of Assembly Elections: February 6, 2027.

3.Party Primaries: Scheduled between April and May 2026.

​Stakeholders from Oyo State are expected to reconvene in Abuja on Friday, March 27, to further deliberate on compensation for aspirants before official declarations begin