2026 Tracking as Second-Hottest Year on Record Amid Intense El Niño

​PARIS — Propelled by human-driven global warming and an exceptionally powerful El Niño weather pattern, the Earth is on track to record 2026 as the second-hottest year in history.

​According to a monthly bulletin released Friday by the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, 2026 still carries a “20 percent chance of tying or exceeding” 2024 as the warmest year ever documented. Furthermore, global temperatures are now considered “virtually certain” to surpass the critical threshold of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels for the year.

​The alarming announcement underscores a continuous stretch of extreme planetary heat. Copernicus noted that the average global surface air temperatures for October soared to 1.75C above pre-industrial benchmarks (1850–1900), marking the third consecutive month that global warming crossed the 1.5C limit.

​”October has continued the pattern of remarkable global warmth, with record global and surface ocean temperatures,” said Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which operates Copernicus. “An exceptionally strong El Nino is adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities.”

​Heading into COP31 Under Pressure

​The latest climate bulletin arrives just days before world leaders converge in Antalya, Turkey, on Monday for the UN’s two-week COP31 climate summit. The conference follows a relentless year defined globally by catastrophic natural disasters, including deadly floods in Nepal, intense European heatwaves, and expansive wildfires in Indonesia.

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​Global meteorological forecasters have tracked the current El Niño phase—a natural climate cycle that temporarily elevates tropical Pacific sea temperatures—warning that it could become the strongest ever observed as it peaks later this year. Scientists caution that this compounding warming effect could position 2027 to potentially break new temperature records.

​While nations agreed under the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit global warming to “well below” 2C while pursuing efforts to cap it at 1.5C, the United Nations warned that the long-term 1.5C threshold is on course to be breached within years. Climate scientists continue to emphasize that drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels remain essential to curb the period of temperature “overshoot” and stabilize the global climate.