ISRAEL ELECTION: NETANYAHU SHORT OF MAJORITY, EISENKOT BLOC LEADS

The Israel election has ended in deadlock, according to exit polls.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud is the largest party, but his bloc has lost its majority, and challenger Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc leads without reaching 61 seats.

Neither man has a clear path to forming a government, which raises the prospect of prolonged coalition bargaining or another election.

ValidViewNetwork reports that these are exit polls, not official results. Final results could take days.

WHAT THE EXIT POLLS SHOW

The polls give Eisenkot’s bloc 52 to 53 seats, Netanyahu’s 50 and the Arab parties 17 to 18. That would mean Netanyahu’s coalition shed 14 seats from the 64 it won in 2022.

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Likud is projected to remain the largest single party with about 24 seats, against 22 for Eisenkot’s Yashar.

Kan puts Netanyahu’s bloc 11 seats short of a 61-seat majority, and Eisenkot’s eight short.

The polls are not unanimous. The pro-Netanyahu Channel 14 gave his coalition 60 seats. i24NEWS projected 55, and showed Ofer Winter’s party missing the threshold. Exit polls often differ from final counts.

HOW NETANYAHU FARED

Netanyahu avoided a rout but lost his governing majority.

His campaign leaned on security and his bond with Washington. He campaigned on an endorsement from US President Donald Trump, who has said they should finish the job against Iran.

On election day he told Likud supporters to skip barbecues and the beach and vote. His supporters see a steady hand who led the country through its darkest hour.

Critics hold him responsible as prime minister for the 7 October failure, when Hamas killed more than 1,200 Israelis and took 251 hostages.

Netanyahu’s allies called the opposition’s celebrations premature after the exit polls.

Yashar warned that Netanyahu was laying the groundwork to challenge the results. That claim is the party’s own, and ValidViewNetwork has not independently confirmed it.

RECORD TURNOUT

Turnout reached 74.3 percent of 7.3 million eligible voters by 8 p.m., the highest in Israel’s history.

Turnout rose sharply in Arab communities, which make up about 20 percent of the population. Mansour Abbas, head of the Islamist Ra’am party, said his community’s vote would change the government.

Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have ruled out governing with Arab-led parties.

WHAT VOTERS ARE SAYING

Voters split along familiar lines.

Netanyahu supporter Yosef Abraham said he voted for the prime minister because he is the wartime leader in the middle of a war. Another Netanyahu voter, Etti Brand, called him the only one and warned that Eisenkot’s allies would bring the country to Palestine.

Others are leaving him. Longtime Netanyahu voter Yair Amar said he switched to Eisenkot, calling him straight. In Jaffa, Nisso Shitrit said the vote was about who serves and who evades service. That points to the ultra-Orthodox draft row, which Eisenkot has made a central pledge.

A Channel 12 poll found the economy and cost of living led voter priorities at 21 percent, ahead of ultra-Orthodox conscription at 17 percent and the 7 October failure at 14 percent. Iran led among Netanyahu’s voters, while the 7 October failure led among opposition voters.

Eisenkot’s supporters fear Israel has become a pariah state abroad.

WHAT IT BODES FOR THE MIDDLE EAST

Change at the top may not mean change in policy. Analysts note that both parties oppose a Palestinian state and support the continued Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon.

Regional policymakers say core policies on Palestinians, Iran and regional posture are unlikely to shift much whoever wins.

There would still be differences. Eisenkot has vowed to restore control of civilian affairs in the West Bank, crack down on violent settlers and strengthen the Palestinian Authority.

Netanyahu would not allow reconstruction in Gaza until Hamas is fully disarmed.

A post-Netanyahu government might take a more cooperative approach to Gaza’s reconstruction and give Jordan and Egypt more diplomatic room.

Iran is the biggest risk. A US-Israeli campaign against Tehran has been under way since February. NPR notes that a stalemate and a repeat election would leave Netanyahu in power with full authority, and he strongly suggests he wants to strike Iran again.

Gulf governments might see his departure as an opening, but Saudi-Israeli normalisation would stay difficult without progress on Palestinian rights.

THE ROAD AHEAD

Both men may claim victory and ask President Isaac Herzog for the first chance to form a government.

Netanyahu leads the largest party, and Eisenkot leads the biggest bloc.

Eisenkot might need a minority government backed by the two Arab parties, and it is unclear whether his partners would agree.

Max Weber described politics as a slow boring of hard boards.

Israel’s voters have bored through, but the board is still not cut. The Israel election has weakened Netanyahu without crowning a successor, and the region will wait on the coalition talks. ValidViewNetwork reports.