“PREPARE NOW” — EXPERTS WARN AS EL NIÑO PEAKS IN NOVEMBER

Nigeria may experience increased heat and changing rainfall patterns as a strengthening El Niño event raises concerns about its potential effects on agriculture, water supply, electricity generation and public health.

The El Niño Nigeria prepare advisory comes as the Nigerian Meteorological Agency confirmed the onset of a strong El Niño event in its August 2026 update, and the National Emergency Management Agency issued a public advisory on how Nigerians can protect themselves .

WHAT IS EL NIÑO?

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become warmer than average.

This warming affects atmospheric circulation, changing weather patterns around the world. Depending on the region, it can contribute to higher temperatures, reduced or excessive rainfall, and shifts in seasonal conditions .

According to the World Meteorological Organisation, El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts between nine and 12 months. Although it develops thousands of kilometres from Nigeria, its influence on global atmospheric circulation can affect weather in West Africa .

WHAT DOES EL NIÑO MEAN FOR NIGERIA?

NiMet’s August 2026 seasonal climate update identified the onset of a strong El Niño event and outlined possible implications for rainfall, agriculture, water resources and energy.

For August to October 2026, the agency forecast normal to above-normal rainfall across much of northern Nigeria, while parts of the South-West and Cross River State were expected to experience normal to below-normal rainfall .

THE RISKS

1. Higher temperatures and health risks

The Climate Impact Lab projected that Nigeria could record an additional 31,400 heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027, compared with an average year. The figure is a model-based estimate of potential excess deaths, not a confirmed death toll .

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Extreme heat can cause dehydration, heat exhaustion and potentially fatal heatstroke, particularly among children, older people and outdoor workers.

2. Agriculture and food production

Changes in rainfall can disrupt planting schedules and crop development. Prolonged dry spells or an early end to the rainy season could reduce yields, while excessive rainfall may cause flooding and damage farms.

NiMet has identified possible agricultural risks in areas expecting below-normal rainfall, including parts of Borno and Yobe .

3. Water supply and electricity generation

Prolonged rainfall deficits can reduce river flows, reservoir levels and groundwater recharge, putting pressure on domestic water supplies and irrigation.

Hydropower generation could also be affected if water inflows into dams decline .

HOW NIGERIANS SHOULD PREPARE

The National Emergency Management Agency issued eight measures for Nigerians to adopt:

1. Prepare for extreme heat: Stay hydrated, avoid direct sun between 11 a.m. and 4 p.m., wear light clothing, and check on children, the elderly and vulnerable people.
2. Conserve water: Use water wisely, fix leaks, and store water in clean, covered containers.
3. Ensure food security: Store enough food for emergencies, support local farming, and protect livestock.
4. Pay attention to your health: Prevent heat-related illnesses, keep surroundings clean, and seek medical help early.
5. Support your livelihood: Use drought-resistant crops, diversify income sources, and access support programmes.
6. Spend less time under the hot sun: Limit outdoor activities during peak heat hours.
7. Strengthen community action: Join early warning efforts and share information with neighbours.
8. Stay informed: Follow updates from NEMA, NiMet and trusted media channels .

WHY IT MATTERS

El Niño is not a distant phenomenon. It is a present threat.

The heat is already here. The rains are already erratic. The farmers are already worried. And the most vulnerable Nigerians—the poor, the elderly, the children—are the ones who will suffer most.

NEMA and NiMet have done their part. They have warned, advised, and prepared. Now it is up to Nigerians to listen, to prepare, and to protect themselves and their communities.

The Super El Niño is coming. The question is whether Nigeria is ready. ValidViewNetwork reports.