Jonathan Dismisses Guinea-Bissau Takeover as ‘Ceremonial Coup’

​BISSAU—The military seizure of power in Guinea-Bissau has been slammed as a “ceremonial coup” by former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, who led the West African Elders Forum Election Observation Mission (WAEF-EOM) and was evacuated from the capital after the events of November 26.

​Dr. Jonathan’s statement, combined with the fact that key military figures now in charge are close allies of the recently deposed incumbent, President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, fuels a growing international suspicion that the takeover was a calculated move to annul the results of the presidential election.

​The Anatomy of a ‘Staged’ Coup

​The military intervention occurred just one day before the National Elections Commission was scheduled to announce the provisional results of the fiercely contested poll between Embaló and opposition challenger, Fernando Dias da Costa.

​Dr. Jonathan, citing his experience as a regional mediator, expressed deep skepticism about the events, highlighting the bizarre sequence of announcements:

​”I wouldn’t call it a coup. It was not a coup. I would just say, for want of a better word, maybe it was a ceremonial coup,” Jonathan stated. “It is the president, President Embaló, who announced the coup. Not only announcing the coup, but Embaló, while the coup took place, was using his phone and addressing media organisations across the world that he had been arrested.”

​This free access to global media while supposedly detained is highly unusual, leading Jonathan and other political observers to conclude the act was staged to disrupt the electoral outcome.

​Military Leaders Linked to Ousted President

​Adding weight to the “staged” theory is the identity of the officers who seized control under the banner of the High Military Command for the Restoration of National Security and Public Order:

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• General Horta Inta-A Na Man (Horta N’Tam): The Army Chief of Staff was installed as the head of the new one-year transitional government. General N’Tam is widely regarded as a close ally of the deposed President Embaló, having been instrumental in protecting his government during a previous coup attempt.

• ​Brigadier General Dinis Incanha: The officer who first announced the takeover on state television had been serving as the Head of the Military Office of the Presidency—a key position within the presidential establishment.

​The new opposition challenger, Fernando Dias da Costa, an independent candidate and former Vice-President of the National People’s Assembly, who was backed by the major opposition coalition (PAI–Terra Ranka), similarly claimed the coup was a sham. The opposition alleged Embaló “fabricated” the takeover to avoid election defeat, a charge General Horta N’Tam denied, claiming his action was necessary to stave off a plot by “narcotraffickers.”

​Legacy of Instability and Narco-Politics

​This latest crisis highlights Guinea-Bissau’s long history of political volatility. Since 1974, the nation has been plagued by at least four successful coups and numerous attempts, earning it a reputation as a ‘Coup Belt’ state and a notorious ‘narco-state.’

​The nation’s instability is largely fueled by weak state institutions and its critical role as a transit hub for cocaine from Latin America to Europe. The vast, illicit wealth from this trade corrupts military and political elites, providing the armed forces with the resources and incentive to act as kingmakers and repeatedly subvert the democratic process.

​International Bodies Demand Results

​The international community has condemned the military’s actions as an illegal seizure of power, united in the demand to respect the electoral process.

• ​African Union (AU) and ECOWAS: Both regional blocs have suspended Guinea-Bissau’s membership and dispatched high-level mediation teams. They demand the immediate restoration of constitutional order, the unconditional release of all detained officials, and the publication of the certified election results.

• ​Joint Observer Missions: Dr. Jonathan, along with the African Union and ECOWAS observer heads, issued a joint statement deploring the disruption and demanding the military command allow the National Electoral Commission to finalise and proclaim the results.

​The core demand from international observers is that the military must not be allowed to use the pretext of a coup to silence the democratic will expressed in the ballot box.