Global Air Conditioning Demand to Triple by 2050, Warns UN

The United Nations has raised a stark warning about the future of global cooling demand, projecting that the need for air conditioning worldwide could more than triple by 2050. This surge is driven by rising populations, expanding wealth, and increasingly severe heatwaves intensified by climate change. In its newly released Global Cooling Watch 2025 report, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) underscores the urgent necessity for sustainable cooling technologies to avoid a drastic rise in greenhouse gas emissions linked to inefficient and polluting cooling systems.

Installed air conditioning capacity is on track to triple over the next three decades, surging most rapidly in Africa and South Asia—regions highly vulnerable to deadly heat waves. Without intervention, cooling-related greenhouse gas emissions could nearly double compared to 2022 levels, contributing significantly to climate change. Yet, billions of people are projected to remain without adequate access to cooling, highlighting a growing global cooling inequality.

UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen emphasized the need to view cooling as essential infrastructure alongside water, energy, and sanitation. However, she cautioned that “we cannot air condition our way out of the heat crisis,” as increased use of conventional air conditioners will exacerbate emissions and energy costs. The report advocates for a transformative shift towards energy-efficient, passive, and nature-based cooling methods—such as enhanced building designs with better insulation, shading, ventilation, and solar-powered off-grid solutions. These measures could reduce indoor temperatures by up to 8 degrees Celsius and dramatically cut emissions.

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The report outlines a Sustainable Cooling Pathway that could lower cooling sector emissions by 64% below projected levels for 2050 and save trillions in electricity and grid investments. When combined with rapid decarbonization of power generation, cooling emissions could decrease by as much as 97%, approaching net-zero by mid-century.

As extreme heat events become more frequent and intense, sustainable cooling is critical not just for comfort, but for protecting health, food security, and economic productivity. The UN’s call to action centers on reimagining cooling not as a climate problem, but as a cornerstone of resilient and sustainable development worldwide.

This message comes amid rising awareness of the “cooling divide,” with over one billion people currently facing high risk due to lack of access to cooling and millions more vulnerable in coming decades if sustainable policies are not implemented. The UN urges policymakers, businesses, and communities to prioritize equitable access to efficient cooling solutions to safeguard vulnerable populations while combating the climate crisis.