“What Is Obi Selling Beyond the South-East?” — Otubanjo asks, Backs Tinubu

Research Professor Femi Otubanjo of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs has declared that President Bola Tinubu possesses a stronger political record to campaign on ahead of the 2027 election, while dismissing Peter Obi’s candidacy as largely representative of the South-East’s desire to produce a president.

A Blunt Assessment from a Political Scientist

In a political season where every endorsement and every dismissal carries weight, Professor Femi Otubanjo’s assessment of the 2027 presidential race stands out for its directness.

The Research Professor at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), speaking on Arise News on Monday, delivered a verdict that cuts to the heart of Nigeria’s electoral politics.

“Tinubu has a record by which you can go,” Otubanjo declared. He traced the President’s political trajectory from 1978, noting that Tinubu had “created political parties” and “helped the president to win”.

The Record Argument

Otubanjo’s argument rests on a fundamental premise: that voters should evaluate candidates based on their track record.

“Since 1978, Tinubu has been a force in Nigerian politics,” he said. “He has become a president. He has introduced policies that are improving the economy” .

This is a classic “incumbency advantage” argument, the idea that sitting presidents have a built-in advantage because they can point to their record in office.

In political science, this is known as “retrospective voting” , where voters evaluate incumbents based on their performance.

The Obi Critique

On Peter Obi, Otubanjo was equally blunt:

“What is Obi selling beyond the fact that he represents the aspiration of the South-East? That is all” .”He’s representing the South-East,” Otubanjo continued.

“But that’s all. He’s not presenting a case that would make Nigeria better”.

This critique reflects a recurring theme in Nigerian electoral politics: the perception that certain candidates are “regional candidates” rather than “national candidates” .

In a country as diverse as Nigeria, a candidate who is perceived as representing only one region may struggle to win votes in other regions.

Otubanjo’s critique echoes earlier statements he made, in which he argued that Obi’s support is largely driven by the South-East’s strong desire to produce Nigeria’s next president.

This is a charge that Obi’s campaign has consistently denied, arguing that his appeal is national and transcends ethnic and regional boundaries.

The Governor Factor

Otubanjo also weighed in on the role of governors in the 2027 election.

“Today Tinubu has 31 governors behind him,” he said, suggesting that the President’s support among state executives would be a decisive factor.In political science, governors are considered “political gatekeepers” who can mobilise voters, influence local government structures and shape electoral outcomes.

Otubanjo’s argument is that Tinubu’s support among governors gives him a structural advantage over his opponents.

However, he cautioned that governors should not be treated as a uniform bloc. The South-East, Rivers, Oyo and some other areas, he noted, could be exceptions.

He also predicted that Tinubu would win Kaduna and most North-Central states.

Otubanjo’s Pedigree

Professor Femi Otubanjo is a respected political scientist at the NIIA, a government-funded think tank. He is known for his expertise in international relations and political analysis.

However, his comments on Obi have drawn criticism from some quarters, with observers noting that his assessment appears to align with the interests of the ruling party.

In political science, this raises questions about “analyst bias”, the tendency of analysts to interpret events in ways that favour their own preferences.

Whether Otubanjo’s assessment is objective or reflects a pro-APC bias is a matter of debate.

The Irony of the Assessment

The irony of Otubanjo’s assessment is that it echoes a critique often levelled at Tinubu himself.

In 2023, Tinubu was frequently described as a “regional candidate” whose appeal was concentrated in the South-West.

Yet, Tinubu went on to win the presidency by building a coalition across regions.

Obi’s supporters argue that the same logic applies to him: that his appeal is national, despite being from the South-East. They point to his strong showing in the 2023 election, where he won votes in all regions, to support this claim.

Otubanjo’s critique, therefore, may be less about Obi’s actual appeal and more about the perception of his appeal.

In politics, perception often matters more than reality.

The Gender and Regional Dynamics

Otubanjo’s comments also highlight the regional dynamics of Nigerian politics. The South-East has never produced a president in Nigeria’s democratic era (since 1999).

This has created a sense of political marginalisation, which many observers believe is driving support for Obi.

In political science, this is known as “regional grievance”, a sense that one’s region is being excluded from power.

This grievance can be a powerful mobilising force, as it taps into deep-seated feelings of injustice.

However, Otubanjo’s argument is that regional grievance alone is not enough to win a national election.

A candidate must present a broader national vision to attract voters across regions.

A Lesson for Nigerian Youths

Professor Otubanjo’s assessment is a reminder that in politics, perception matters as much as reality.

The same leaders who claim to represent all Nigerians may still be perceived as regional candidates.

The same voters who are urged to “vote for the best candidate” may still be influenced by regional loyalties.

For young Nigerians, the lesson is clear: do not underestimate the power of regional dynamics in Nigerian politics. The same people who dismiss regional candidates will never allow their own children to be excluded from power.

Understand the politics of your region. Demand national leaders. And never forget that your vote is your voice.