The 4-Horse Race to Oke-Mosan

The journey to Oke-Mosan and its intrigues is becoming more interesting as the days draw closer with the political gladiators striving to put finishing touches to their mobilisation for votes. This Saturday, attention will be shifted to the Governorship and house of assembly elections. The unexpected outcome of the February 25 Presidential and National Assembly elections has further heightened the anxiety of the politicians on the unpredictable outcome of the election. It has given parties such as the Labour Party and other ‘third force’ a morale booster and more reckoning, it has also led to re-strategizing by the traditional parties – The APC and PDP in some states.

In Ogun state, the race for the Oke Mosan Governor’s office is as tense as it is dramatic with each party trying to outwit each other while holding firmly to their strongholds. The incumbent governor, Prince Dapo Abiodun of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Oladipupo Adebutu of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Olubiyi Otegbeye of African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Dr Samuel Adeyemi of Action Alliance (AA) are in hot race for the number one seat in Ogun state.

With the calibre, pedigree and political network of the candidates and series of alignment and realignment, it has become difficult for most political observers to categorically narrow down on the winner. Saturday will determine has been the sing song!

ValidViewNetwork takes a critical look at the chances of the four major contenders.

Governor ‘Dapo Abiodun

He is the incumbent Governor and of the ruling APC. Going by the performance of APC in Ogun State during the Presidential and National Assembly elections, many would have expected a smooth sail for the ruling party in retaining the governorship seat. For some time, it was believed that there was no opposition to the second term bid of the incumbent Governor but the political dynamics is challenging that belief.

The governor has credible structures in all the 20 LG and 236 wards. He also has the backing of many political heavyweights in the state but there are still a number of hurdles he will have to surmount to win a 2nd term in office.

The APC is expected to be depleted in Ogun West which is the stronghold of two of his main challengers. Understandably, the deputy governor of PDP, Adekunle Akinlade who is from Ipokia and the candidate of the ADC, Biyi Otegbeye who is also from the same district will deplete the votes of APC in Ogun West. These two will likely reduce the number of votes for the ruling party despite the popularity of the Senator-elect from the area – Solomon Adeola aka Yayi.

Adekunle Akinlade had contested for the number one seat in 2019 and appeared to have a good followership in the area while Otegbeye is also very popular in the axis.

The governor will also face a herculean task in Ogun Central which is the stronghold of his friend turned political foe, former governor Ibikunle Amosun. Amosun boasts of a cult followership in Ogun central and had openly adopted Bar. Otegbeye.

The adoption of Otegbeye by Amosun is considered a great plus for ADC. However, despite the adoption and collapse of the structures of Amosun for Chief Olumide Aderinokun of PDP who had contested for Ogun Central where Amosun represents, APC still won.

Governor Abiodun is expected to share the votes in Ogun East with the PDP candidate, Ladi Adebutu.

Hon. Ladi Adebutu

PDP’s Ladi Adebutu is a political juggernaut who currently holds a firm grip of the party in the state.

He is the son of a business tycoon cum philanthropist who hails from the same Iperu hometown, in Ikenne Local Government Area as the incumbent governor.

Adebutu and Akinlade’s combination has caused uncertainty in the political calculation of Ogun State. The combination can checkmate the second term aspiration of the Governor.

Adebutu’s chances has also been strengthened with the resolve of the dispute with a guber aspirant, Segun Showunmi. Both men had been at loggerheads over the ticket of the party but that has now been settled.

This is not the first time Adebutu is aspiring to be number one man in Ogun and his experience over the years will also play a major role.

The PDP candidate will likely share the votes from Ogun East, while his deputy, Akinlade will bring in votes from Ogun West.

Bar. ‘Biyi Otegbeye

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Olubiyi Otegbeye is a lawyer and the candidate of the African Democratic Congress. He has the backing of former governor, ibikunle Amosun.

The former governor Amosun as the incumbent had backed Akinlade in the 2019 election against Abiodun and will hope that he can succeed this time around.

Barr. Biyi Otegbeye has an advantage being the only candidate from Ogun West, a district which is claiming marginalization because it has not tasted the seat of power since the creation of Ogun State 47years.

If election victory is determined only by the principle of fairness and equality, Otegbeye would fly. However, there are many other factors that shape the outcome of an election.

Otegbeye will likely share the votes with both the APC and PDP as both parties are also strong in the area. The presence of Akinlade is also a factor.

Otegbeye is expected to share the large chunk of the votes in Ogun central with the incumbent governor.

Dr Samuel Adeyemi

He is of Action Alliance. He is perhaps the only Nigerian who is a Veterinary Doctor, a Pharmacist, a Lawyer, a Chartered Accountant and Management expert. His articulated manifesto speaks volume of his preparedness.

If gubernatorial election is won by academic qualifications, his emergence would be automatic. However, it takes more than academic qualifications and brilliance to win an election.

He was a foundation member and Oyo State officer of the defunct National Republican Convention, NRC and current Chairman Board of Trustees of Action Alliance.

He is from Ijebu Igbo and has navigated the nooks and crannies of Ogun State mobilising for votes. The recent endorsement of his party by about eight political parties have also boosted his chances in the March 18 polls.

He has followers across the length and breadth of the state, but the party cannot boast of strong structures and financial capability like other traditional parties. He can benefit from the spoils of the traditional parties to spring up a surprise.

Meanwhile, the last few days leading to the election day is a political window and anything can happen particularly in a sophisticated and elitist state like the Gateway state. There are on- going endorsement, alignment, and realignment among the gladiators. How much effect these would have on the outcome would be seen come Saturday, March 18.