Ogun 2027: Wale Adedayo Says APC Has Lost the Grassroots, Predicts “Seismic” Adebutu Victory

When Wale Adedayo says the APC is finished in Ogun State, it would be easy to dismiss it as another opposition politician speaking ahead of an election.

That would be too simple.

Adedayo is not a political observer who has spent his career looking at Ogun politics from a distance.

He is a veteran journalist, a former Chief Press Secretary to a former Ogun governor and a former elected chairman of Ijebu East Local Government.

More importantly, he has spent years moving between the newsroom and the political field.

That gives his latest prediction a certain value.It does not make him automatically right. And that distinction matters.

The man behind the prediction

Adedayo’s political journey is unusual because he did not emerge from politics alone.He came from journalism and public affairs, then moved into grassroots politics.

He became chairman of Ijebu East Local Government on the APC platform under Governor Dapo Abiodun.

His time in office was short of quiet.

In 2023, he accused the Ogun State Government of withholding or diverting funds meant for the local governments.

The state government rejected the allegations. The confrontation eventually led to his suspension and impeachment by the Ijebu East legislative council.

That episode changed Adedayo’s political identity.

He was no longer simply a council chairman.

He became one of the most recognisable grassroots voices challenging the way local government was being run in Ogun.

The matter did not end with his removal.

In December 2025, the Ogun State High Court nullified the suspension and impeachment, describing the process as invalid and awarding him N30 million in general damages.

The court, however, rejected his attempt to link the legislative council’s conduct directly to Governor Abiodun.

That legal history is important when assessing the man speaking today.

It neither proves every allegation he made nor makes every political prediction correct.

But it shows that his conflict with the political establishment was not merely a social-media quarrel. He took the battle into the courts.

His strongest asset may be the grassroots

Politics in Ogun is often discussed through the names of governors, senators, billionaires and party leaders.

But elections are eventually won in wards.They are won in polling units.

They are won by people who know who the ward chairman is, who the councillor is, which family belongs to which political camp and where the local grievances are buried.

That is the terrain Adedayo understands.

His experience as a council chairman put him directly inside that machinery.

Even before his latest declaration, he had demonstrated an interest in local government politics that went beyond occupying an office.

In 2021, shortly after taking office, reports highlighted his early push for grassroots projects in Ijebu East, including road grading and drainage work.

His political language has also consistently been rooted in local government.

In an interview after the Supreme Court’s 2024 local government autonomy judgment, Adedayo argued that genuine service to the people is best delivered at the local level.That is significant.

A politician who understands the ward can sometimes see an election differently from a politician who only sees opinion polls.

But grassroots presence is not the same thing as electoral victory

This is where Adedayo’s argument needs to be tested.

He says the APC has lost touch with Ogun voters.

He says political movement is taking place across the state’s 20 local governments and 236 wards.

He says APC members are moving towards the PDP.

He says Ladi Adebutu will win the governorship.

Those are major claims. They need evidence. The fact that Adedayo has grassroots experience makes his assessment worth listening to.

It does not make it a certified election result.

The APC still has an incumbent political structure in Ogun.

It also has access to a formidable political network.

And elections are rarely decided simply by which party appears unpopular at a particular moment.

Candidates matter. Money matters. Party organisation matters.

Zoning matters. Turnout matters. Federal influence matters.

Local alliances matter.

And, above all, the voter matters.

The Adebutu factor

Adedayo’s confidence in Ladi Adebutu is also interesting.

Adebutu is not an unknown opposition figure.

He contested the 2023 governorship election on the PDP platform and lost to Dapo Abiodun by a relatively narrow margin compared with the scale of the state.

That previous performance gives the PDP something to build on.

But 2027 is not 2023.

Political alliances change.

Candidates change.

Public mood changes.

Economic conditions change.

Even political friendships can change before ballot papers are printed.

Adedayo appears to believe those changes are already happening.

His description of the coming election as a “seismic change” is therefore more than ordinary campaign language.

He is arguing that Ogun may be approaching a political realignment.

The question is whether the ground is actually moving or whether politicians are simply hearing the sound of their own campaign drums.

The Ijebu-Yewa question

Adedayo also raised the old and sensitive issue of zoning.

His argument is that the Ijebus have supported Yewa candidates in previous elections and that political circumstances have changed.

He believes the Ijebus now deserve their turn.

That argument will resonate with some voters.

It will also be challenged by others.

Ogun politics has always carried an intricate geography.

Ogun West. Ogun Central. Ogun East.

Ijebu. Remo. Yewa. Awori. Egba.

Each has its own political memories and calculations.

But zoning alone cannot win an election.

A candidate must still persuade voters outside his immediate political base.

That is why Adebutu’s 2027 challenge will be about more than whether an Ijebu candidate deserves support.

It will be about whether enough voters across Ogun believe that candidate can govern the entire state.

Then there is Solomon Adeola

Adedayo’s attack on APC candidate Solomon Adeola is potentially more explosive.

He questioned Adeola’s roots in Ogun and challenged him to establish his ancestry.

That is a serious political allegation.

But it remains an allegation unless supported by evidence.

It should therefore not be presented as established fact.

The important political point is different.

Adedayo clearly intends to make identity and indigeneity part of the 2027 conversation.

Adeola will have to decide whether to answer the argument, ignore it or produce evidence that settles it.

Either way, the issue could become politically useful to the opposition.

What Adedayo understands that Abuja politicians sometimes forget

There is a difference between knowing politics and knowing politicians.

A person can understand party politics without understanding voters.

Grassroots politics is different.

It involves knowing the market woman who complains about a bad road.

The youth who cannot find work.

The community leader who controls no formal office but can mobilise hundreds of people.

The ward politician who knows every street.The family that has voted the same way for decades.

And the voter who says one thing publicly but makes another decision inside the polling booth.

Adedayo has operated in that environment.

That is probably why his prediction deserves to be examined rather than laughed off.

But Ogun is not yet an APC-free zone

This is where political analysis must resist excitement.

Adedayo says, “APC is gone in Ogun State.”

That is his political assessment.It is not yet a political fact.

The APC may be facing discontent.

The PDP may be gaining ground.

Adebutu may be stronger than he was in 2023.

There may indeed be movements across the wards.

But until voters vote, all of these remain political possibilities.

The 2027 election will eventually separate the people who understand the mood from those who merely misunderstood it.

And that is the beauty, and cruelty, of democracy.

The bigger lesson from Adedayo

Perhaps the most interesting thing about Adedayo’s declaration is not whether he is correct.

It is what his political journey tells us about Ogun.

A man who once sat inside the APC government structure now believes the same structure is heading for defeat.

A man who was removed from local government office has returned to the political conversation.

A man whose impeachment was challenged in court and later nullified is again speaking confidently about the grassroots.

That makes him politically relevant.It does not make him infallible.

The intelligent response to his prediction is therefore neither applause nor ridicule. It is to watch the wards.

Watch the defections.

Watch the alliances.

Watch the local grievances.

Watch who is building structures quietly.

Watch who is only making noise on television.

Because in Ogun politics, the loudest politician is not necessarily the strongest politician.

Sometimes, the real election is being prepared quietly in the wards while everybody else is arguing on television.

And if Adedayo is right about the “seismic change” he says is coming, the first tremors will not be felt in Abeokuta.

They will be felt at the grassroots.

ValidViewNetwork reports that Wale Adedayo’s prediction carries political weight because of his history as an elected Ijebu East council chairman and long involvement in Ogun’s political and public affairs.

ValidViewNetwork reports, however, that his prediction remains a political assessment, not an electoral verdict. The real test will come when Ogun voters decide at the ballot box.

The real question is now hanging over Ogun APC: is Adedayo describing an earthquake that has already started, or is he simply predicting one that will never come?