SUBSIDY: NIGERIANS TOO POOR TO BE LEFT TO MARKET FORCES — ADC

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has said Nigerians are too poor to be left to market forces, declaring that the party will subsidise crude oil production rather than consumption if it wins the 2027 general election.

The ADC Nigerians too poor market forces position, articulated by the party’s National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, draws a sharp line between the opposition’s economic philosophy and the reform agenda of the Tinubu administration.

THE STATEMENT

Abdullahi appeared on Channels Television’s Politics Today on Monday, where he set out the ADC’s position on fuel pricing and subsidy.

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“The most important thing is for ADC and Atiku Abubakar to say that Nigerians are too poor to be left to market forces. We cannot leave the people so poor and not provide subsidy,” he said.”So, we will subsidise production.”

HOW THE PRODUCTION SUBSIDY WOULD WORK

Abdullahi explained that the party’s approach differs fundamentally from the consumption subsidy that previous administrations operated and that the Tinubu government removed in 2023.

“We are not saying we are going to subsidise consumption. We are saying we are going to subsidise production,” he said.

Pressed on where the crude oil would come from, given that the Federal Government does not control the entirety of Nigeria’s daily production, Abdullahi anchored the plan in Nigeria’s status as an oil-producing nation.

“You can ask us, where will the crude oil come from? We are an oil-producing country. Whatever we need to do to subsidise crude oil production and make fuel available to Nigerians at a cheaper rate, we will do,” he said.

THE WAR ANALOGY

Abdullahi used a wartime analogy to defend the interventionist approach, arguing that governments do not negotiate with market forces when the welfare of citizens is at stake.

“When your country is at war, you don’t start talking about the price of guns and the price of bullets. You defend your country by every means necessary. So ADC and Atiku Abubakar say we will defend the people by every means necessary,” he said.

He added that any policy that fails to improve the welfare and security of citizens should be reconsidered. “As a government, whatever you do, any policy option you choose, if it does not improve the wellbeing, security and welfare of the people, it must be reconsidered,” he said.

THE CONTRAST WITH THE APC

The ADC’s position places it in direct opposition to the ruling All Progressives Congress, which removed the petrol subsidy in 2023 on the argument that it was unsustainable, corrupt and a drain on public finances.

The Presidency has since argued that a production subsidy of the kind Atiku has proposed is unworkable, citing the crude shortfall, the gap between what Nigeria produces and what the Federal Government owns after joint venture and production sharing obligations are accounted for.

According to the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, Nigeria produces roughly 1.8 million barrels of crude per day, but the equity crude available to the state is fewer than 700,000 barrels per day.

The Presidency has also described Atiku’s subsidy proposal as “shallow, election-laced demagoguery” and demanded that he disclose the proposed subsidy cap, annual budget, eligible volume, funding source and safeguards against diversion.

THE POLITICAL CONTEXT

The exchange is part of a widening battle over economic policy ahead of 2027.Atiku, the ADC presidential candidate, has framed his campaign around the cost-of-living crisis, promising relief on fuel and transport.

The Presidency has framed the election as a choice between painful reforms that will eventually deliver prosperity and populist promises that cannot be funded.

The ADC’s intervention on Channels Television is the clearest articulation yet of the party’s economic pitch: that market pricing is inappropriate for a population this poor, and that the state has both the means and the moral obligation to intervene at the production stage rather than the pump.

THE UNANSWERED QUESTIONS

The ADC’s argument is politically potent, but it leaves important questions unresolved. If the Federal Government owns fewer than 700,000 barrels per day of unencumbered crude, how does it subsidise production without purchasing crude at global market prices and absorbing the difference?

Where does the funding come from in a fiscal environment already stretched by debt service? And what enforcement mechanism ensures that any subsidy granted at the production stage actually reaches consumers rather than being absorbed as margin along the distribution chain?Abdullahi did not address those questions in the interview.

The Presidency has already asked them. Atiku has not yet provided the detailed answers.

WHY IT MATTERS

For voters, the debate offers a clear choice of economic philosophies.The ADC says Nigerians are too poor for market forces and promises state intervention at the production level. The Presidency says the state cannot subsidise what it does not own and insists the reform path is the only sustainable route to lower costs.

Both positions have political appeal. Only one can be implemented. ValidViewNetwork reports that the ADC has promised to subsidise crude production if elected in 2027. The party has not yet published the fiscal details of the plan.