Modi Looks to Nigeria for Oil as Abuja Chases a $15bn Trade Comeback

Nigeria and India once had a trade relationship worth almost $15 billion. Then the oil slowed. The trade followed it.

Now both countries want to bring the relationship back.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has called for renewed purchases of Nigerian crude as Abuja and New Delhi work to restore bilateral trade to its former peak.

Vice President Kashim Shettima discussed the issue with Modi during a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the BRICS Leaders’ Summit in New Delhi.

The two countries also agreed to deepen cooperation beyond oil, including fintech, digital infrastructure, creative industries and other areas of economic activity.

ValidViewNetwork reports that bilateral trade stood at about $14.95 billion in the 2021 to 2022 financial year.

By 2024 to 2025, however, it had fallen to about $7.13 billion.

The decline was linked largely to reduced Indian purchases of Nigerian crude. Trade recovered to roughly $9 billion in 2025 to 2026, according to figures disclosed by India’s High Commissioner to Nigeria.

The new target is therefore not starting from zero. It is an attempt to rebuild something that once worked.

India wants the oil, but Nigeria needs more

For Nigeria, the attraction is obvious.India is one of the world’s major economies. It has a huge population, a growing manufacturing sector and enormous demand for energy and raw materials.

Nigeria, meanwhile, remains heavily dependent on oil earnings even as successive governments promise diversification.

More crude purchases could therefore provide a useful boost to Nigeria’s export earnings.

But there is a bigger question. What exactly does Nigeria want from India in return?

A trade relationship built mainly around Nigerian crude can produce impressive figures without transforming the Nigerian economy.

Nigeria has spent decades exporting raw materials and importing finished goods.

That model creates trade, but it does not necessarily create enough jobs or industrial capacity at home.

The new conversation therefore matters because both sides are talking about areas beyond oil.

Fintech, digital public infrastructure, creative industries and investment could create a different kind of relationship.

That is where the $15 billion target becomes more interesting.

Nigeria cannot afford another oil-only relationship

The danger is that Nigeria celebrates the return of crude sales without asking what happens next.

If India buys more Nigerian oil while Nigeria continues importing high-value manufactured goods, the country may simply return to an old pattern.

Sell crude. Buy finished products. Repeat.

The more ambitious opportunity is different.

Nigeria could use stronger relations with India to attract investment into manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, technology, agriculture, renewable energy and digital services.

Indian companies already have experience operating across Africa.

Nigeria has the market. India has capital, technology, manufacturing experience and a huge consumer base.

The challenge is turning those advantages into deals that Nigerians can actually feel.

The $15bn number is not the real prize

A bigger trade figure will make good headlines.

It will not automatically make Nigerians richer. The real test is what sits behind the number.

How much Nigerian crude is being purchased?How much Nigerian non-oil produce reaches India?

How many factories are established in Nigeria?How many Nigerian workers are employed?

How much technology is transferred?

How many Nigerian businesses gain access to the Indian market?

Those questions matter more than the headline figure.

Nigeria also needs to negotiate from a position of confidence.India wants energy.

Nigeria wants investment.

Both countries have something to offer. That creates room for a more balanced partnership.

A relationship with history, but a future to build

Nigeria and India have maintained long-standing diplomatic and economic ties.

But trade numbers show that relationships do not maintain themselves. Markets change. Energy buyers change suppliers. Countries pursue new partners. Businesses follow opportunity.

Nigeria therefore has to compete for India’s attention rather than assume that historical ties will keep the relationship strong.

The return of stronger crude purchases could be the opening.It should not be the destination.

ValidViewNetwork reports that the proposed return towards $15 billion in bilateral trade gives Nigeria an opportunity to rethink what it wants from one of the world’s most important emerging economic powers.

The real victory would not simply be more barrels of Nigerian crude leaving our shores.

It would be more Nigerian goods, services, technology and businesses finding their way into the Indian market.

If Abuja gets that balance right, the relationship could become much more valuable than an oil deal.If it does not, Nigeria may simply be reopening an old trade route without changing the destination.