March 18 : Will Lagos gubernatorial election follow same pattern with presidential ?

Not many had anticipated that the Labour  ‘’structureless’’ party would be able to spring up a surprise in Lagos State as witnessed during the Presidential election held on February 25. Lagos State under the firm grip of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu was the only state which escaped the incursion of the PDP into the South west in 2003 and is considered the stronghold of APC. Incidentally, the man considered as the last man standing at that time and the engine room of the actualisation of APC Presidency was standing election in what was considered his life ambition. One would have expected that all loose ends would have been tightened and all political arsenals fully activated to reaffirm the broom tsunami but alas the Jagaban lost the election in Lagos State though he went ahead to emerge the overall winner of the election as declared by the umpire.

There have been assessments and reassessments. There have been lamentations and condemnations among those who felt challenged and unhappy about the outcome of the election. Many factors have been attributed to the loss of February 25 Presidential election in Lagos State. According to Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, who is at the receiving end of the effects of the result of February 25 elections, three reasons were responsible for the loss of Tinubu in Lagos. In his words, : “Bola Tinubu lost the February 25 election in the state because of the Muslim – Muslim ticket, Igbo presidency sentiment, and internal crisis within the ruling All progressives Congress (APC) in the state.”

The truth is that the victory of the February 25 has emboldened the Labour Party and provided the party with confidence and latitude to go into the March 18 gubernatorial election. The strategic importance of Lagos to the country has always given it a political edge over other states. It is therefore not surprising that the Labour Party is sparing no effort in taking over the leadership of the state from APC come March 18.

While Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu , the current Governor  of the most cosmopolitan state in Nigeria is seeking a second term under the ruling All Progressives Congress, Mr Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour of the Labour Party, banking on the electoral prosperity of Labour party in Lagos on February 25 is hoping to emerge as the Governor of the state and Mr Abdul Azeez Olajide Adeniran (Jandor) is also hoping that he will be the beneficiary of the spoilt of the APC/LP political tussle.

Generally, the 2023 elections have thrown up many debates along religious and ethnic divides but none has generated so much heat and controversy as that of the Lagos State with varied concepts and definitions of what Lagos stood or stands for. There appeared to have been distortions and concoctions in historical perspectives of the state for political exigencies with each party trying to amplify its own view. Sure, the political atmosphere will not provide a pleasant opportunity for a uniformed opinion based on informed decision. However, if the electorates cannot facilitate a generally acceptable concept of Lagos State, they can determine who becomes the Governor on March 18. It is the electorate that will decide on Saturday, March 18 whether the pattern of the results of February 25 will remain or not.

The Labour party relying on  the population of Igbos in Lagos joined by other ethnic groups is out to repeat a surprise. A bloc vote from Igbos just as was widely reported during the presidential elections will certainly send shivers through the spines of any political opponent. It appears to have put the ruling All Progressives Congress under intense pressure with Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu navigating the nooks and crannies of Lagos canvassing for votes and making commitments.

 According to Testimony Asegunmute, a mobiliser for Labour Party in Lagos State. : ‘’ The election of March 18 will follow same pattern with that of February 25 provided the environment is conducive for people to vote without fear and intimidation. The ruling APC has campaigned in fear since the results of the presidential elections were released. Frantic efforts being made to discredit GRV are only making him to be more popular. The recent attempt to pay pensions for example has annoyed many who now see that they were obviously taken for granted. The voter demography for Peter Obi was diverse and they have significantly been rejuvenated’’

However, there are those who believe that regardless of the background and good intention of the candidate of the Labour Party and regardless of the mobilisation of Igbo block votes for Gbadebo, that Lagos State deserves an experience leader who would not use the cosmopolitan state as an experimental tool. They have repeatedly asked for the experience of Mr Gbadebo in either public or private sector that could generate the trust of handling a strategic state as Lagos to him. There have also been calls for restrains based on aspersions and insinuations on the candidacy and drive of Mr Gbadebo.

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As the March 18 decisive date draws nearer, there are those who think that the Labour Party or its alliance with PDP or any party or parties whatsoever cannot cause any political earthquake to the APC ruling status in the state. They believed that the results of the presidential election has helped APC to restrategise and that the victory of APC on Saturday, March 11 is a done deal.

According to Muhammed Mustapha Yusuf, Convener, Nigerians United 4 Tinubu-Shettima (NUTS),: ‘’The forthcoming governorship election in Lagos State isn’t expected to follow the pattern of the last presidential poll in the state because all the identifiable fault lines (which I wouldn’t like to mention here for security reason) that shaped the last (presidential) election won’t be applicable next Saturday.

Hence, I strongly believe (putting all political indices into consideration) that APC ‘ll win the governorship election & 90%+ in the house of assembly poll.’’

In an opinion poll carried out by ValidViewNetwork to ascertain the opinion of the people whether the March 18 will follow the same pattern as that of February 25,  it was confirmed that 45.5% of the respondents believed that the pattern would be different while 30.3% believed that the gubernatorial election will follow the same pattern and by implication LP will emerge Governor in Lagos State. There also those who believe that the political climate is cloudy and hence it is difficult for them to assert whether the gubernatorial election will follow the same pattern with that of presidential. A high value of 25% who were not sure gives an impression that the victory of LP in Lagos has changed the political constant values of APC in the state with March 18 providing an opportunity for a ” bouncing back” or a retrogression. If at all 25% are not sure of the pattern the results will follow, one thing is sure that the good people of Lagos across political, ethnic and religious divides are too savvy to gamble with the state.

Beyond the emergence of a winner on March 18 is the importance of peace and tranquillity in the state before and after the election. It is not a time for any group or group of people to threaten the peace of the state as the effects would be on the masses after the election. It is for Lagos State to set the tone for greater development. Eko o ni baje o