Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector experienced a significant shift in June 2026, characterized by a sharp rise in petrol imports and a simultaneous decline in domestic supply receipts. According to the latest data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), the country remains in a period of transition as it balances local refining output with external procurement to maintain fuel security.
Import Surge and Supply Dynamics
The NMDPRA’s June 2026 Fact Sheet reveals that average daily petrol imports surged by 207 per cent, rising from 5.9 million litres in May to 18.1 million litres in June. This increase acted as a critical buffer, as domestic Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) supply receipts dropped by approximately 21.7 per cent—falling from 41.5 million litres per day in May to 32.5 million litres in June.
Despite the volatility in domestic output, total petrol receipts across the nation actually improved by 6.8 per cent, reaching 50.6 million litres per day. Consequently, petrol stock sufficiency levels saw a notable recovery, climbing from 16.2 days in May to 19.7 days by the end of June.
Broader Energy Sector Indicators
The June performance highlights the ongoing evolution of Nigeria’s energy landscape:
- Crude Oil Production: Nigeria achieved a significant milestone in June 2026, with crude oil production averaging 1.56 million barrels per day (bpd), or 1.735 million bpd including condensates—the highest level in six years. This marks the fourth consecutive month of growth, with the country operating at 104 per cent of its OPEC+ quota.
- Refining and Pricing: While domestic refinery crude receipts increased by 9.3 per cent in June, the downstream market continues to rely on a mixed-supply structure. Recent market intelligence from S&P Global suggests that domestic refining capacity, particularly from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, continues to anchor fuel prices and shield consumers from global price shocks and rising freight costs.
- Other Products: The LPG market saw a 24.4 per cent increase in total receipts, bolstered by a 1,400 per cent jump in imports, even as domestic LPG receipts declined. Meanwhile, diesel (AGO) supply faced a 14 per cent decline, though inventory buffers kept stock sufficiency at a healthy 37.1 days.
Strategic Outlook
The trend observed throughout the first half of 2026 underscores the necessity of sustained domestic refining performance to achieve long-term energy independence. While the June data indicates a temporary reliance on increased imports to meet consumption needs, the resilience of the national supply chain—supported by record-high crude production—suggests a robust, albeit evolving, regulatory and market-driven approach to maintaining fuel availability for Nigerians.
Nigeria’s crude oil production gains
This video provides additional context regarding the record-breaking crude oil production figures recorded in June 2026.
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