By Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai
As we approach the 2027 general elections, the Nigerian political landscape is undergoing a transformation that should alarm every defender of liberty. We are witnessing a systematic attempt to re-engineer our Republic into a “democracy without competition.” The irony of this shift is sharpened by the fact that the primary architect of this current era was once the loudest champion of the opposite view.
The Tinubu Doctrine (2011–2020)
Before ascending to the presidency, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu was the quintessential opposition leader. His words from 2011 at Chatham House remain the gold standard for democratic discourse: “We cannot talk about the vitality of Nigerian democracy without talking about the vitality of the political opposition. For there is no democracy without diversity in substantive opinion.”
He argued then—rightly—that a “Unity Government” was a “nebulous” trap designed to stifle dissent. He warned of actors with “authoritarian genotypes” who use democratic mechanisms only to whittle them down once in power. Today, those warnings feel less like historical observations and more like a prophetic indictment of the current administration’s trajectory.
The “Hollowing Out” of Pluralism
The Fourth Republic’s greatest strength has been its competitive edge. From the breakthrough of 2015 to the multi-force contest of 2023, Nigerians have enjoyed the right to choose. However, a new, more clinical strategy is being deployed to ensure 2027 offers no such choice:
- The Defection Epidemic: Through a calculated mix of “carrots” (financial inducements) and “sticks” (threats of state-led investigations), opposition governors and legislators are being herded into the ruling party. This is not political convergence; it is democratic distress.
- Weaponizing State Security: We are seeing the growing politicization of national security. Extraordinary coercive powers, meant to fight terrorism and protect citizens, are instead being deployed to monitor, harass, and cripple the businesses of those perceived as potential democratic alternatives.
- The Perils of “Managed” Stability: Some look at other African nations where the ruling party wins by implausible margins and call it stability. In reality, it is stagnation. When you remove competition, you remove the incentive to perform.
Economic Costs of Political Erosion
The consequences are not merely political; they are fiscal. Investor confidence relies on institutional predictability and the rule of law. When courts are perceived as instruments of intimidation and the state targets businesses by association, the “risk premium” for investing in Nigeria skyrockets. We cannot fix the power sector or stabilize the Naira in a climate where judicial independence is under siege.
A Call to Reclaim our Purpose
As President Tinubu himself said during the #EndSARS protests in 2020, “The use of strong force against any peaceful protesters is indefensible.” This principle must extend to the political arena. A vibrant opposition is not an enemy of the state; it is the conscience of the people.
The road to 2027 should be paved with debates on human security, healthcare, and infrastructure—not with the wreckage of dismantled opposition parties. Nigeria’s strength lies in its noisy, resilient diversity. To silence that diversity for the sake of political convenience is to betray the very Constitution that enables leadership in the first place.
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