Three Africans, 13 other cardinals emerge as potential successors to Pope Francis

With no official campaigning or list of candidates and the election process shrouded in secrecy, speculation about who will succeed Pope Francis after the conclave beginning this week remains just that — speculation.

But here are 16 cardinals who are among the potential favourites to succeed Pope Francis — so-called “papabili” — divided by region.

AFRICA

Peter Turkson (Ghana), 76, Archbishop emeritus of Cape Coast

One of the Church’s most influential cardinals from Africa, Turkson has for years been mentioned as a possible first black pope.

Made a cardinal by Pope John Paul II in 2003, the multi-lingual Turkson has been a papal envoy and mediator, including in South Sudan.

He also served between 2016 and 2021 as head of a top Vatican department, the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development, which deals with human rights and migration among other issues.

Born into a humble family of 10 children, Turkson has criticised anti-gay legislation in Uganda, but defends Catholic sexual morality and has denied that homosexuality is a human rights issue.

Robert Sarah (Guinea), 79, former prefect of the Congregation for Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacraments

Had Pope Francis lived a few more months, conservative prelate Robert Sarah — who turns 80 on June 16 — would have been too old to join the conclave or to succeed him.

As it is, though, he has found himself championed by conservative Catholics in the French-speaking world as a candidate to turn the clock back on progressive reforms.

An ardent opponent of what he in 2015 called “Western ideologies on homosexuality and abortion and Islamic fanaticism”, he denounced a 2024 text that paved the way for the blessing of same-sex couples.

Experts believe his views make him too conservative to win a two-thirds majority at the conclave, but even a possible candidacy has boosted his profile.

Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (Democratic Republic of Congo), 65, Archbishop of Kinshasa

Ambongo was the only cardinal from Africa on Pope Francis’s advisory council of cardinals, and is the leader of the association of African bishops, SECAM.

Born in 1960, the year of DRC’s independence from Belgium, he has been a strong voice for peace in his conflict-ridden country — and is outspoken in his conservative views.

He notably signed a letter in January 2024 voicing opposition to the Vatican’s declaration allowing priests to carry out non-liturgical blessings of same-sex unions.

In a 2023 interview, Ambongo — who some believe could be his continent’s first pope — proclaimed that “Africa is the future of the Church, it’s obvious”.

EUROPE

Pietro Parolin (Italy), 70, Francis’s number two at the Vatican

Parolin was secretary of state — the Vatican’s effective number two — for almost Francis’s entire pontificate, and its most visible exponent on the world stage.

Known for his calm and subtle sense of humour, the polyglot also has a fine grasp of the intricacies of the Roman Curia, the Holy See’s central government, and was part of a group of cardinal advisers to Francis.

He is currently considered the frontrunner to become the next pope.

He played a key role in a landmark — and controversial — 2018 Vatican agreement with China on naming bishops.

Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italy), 60, Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem

Pizzaballa is the top Catholic in the Middle East with an archdiocese encompassing Israel, the Palestinian territories, Jordan and Cyprus.

He was made a cardinal in September 2023, shortly before the war broke out between Israel and Hamas.

The Franciscan has appealed for peace from both sides, and at Christmas in 2024 led mass in both Gaza and Jerusalem.

Matteo Maria Zuppi (Italy), 69, Archbishop of Bologna

A member of the Roman community of Sant’Egidio, Zuppi has for more than three decades acted as a discreet diplomat for the Vatican including serving as Pope Francis’s special peace envoy for Ukraine.

Known for riding his bicycle around Bologna, Zuppi is a popular figure for his decades of work on behalf of the needy. He also advocates for welcoming migrants and gay Catholics into the Church.

He has been president of the Italian Episcopal Conference since 2022.

Claudio Gugerotti (Italy), 69

An academic and multi-lingual diplomat from the Italian city of Verona, Gugerotti is an expert on the Eastern Churches.

He has served as nuncio — or ambassador of the Holy See — in several countries, including from 2002 in Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, later in Belarus, and then from 2015 to 2020 in Ukraine.

The author of several books, Gugerotti largely avoids commenting on controversial issues. He was named Prefect of the Dicastery for the Eastern Churches in 2022, and was made a cardinal in 2023.

Jean-Marc Aveline (France), 66, Archbishop of Marseille

Born in Algeria, Aveline has spent most of his life in the French port city of Marseille.

Like his close friend Pope Francis, he has been a voice for welcoming migrants and promoting interreligious dialogue.

Appreciated for his discretion, intellectual abilities and people skills, Aveline has carved out a reputation as a cardinal to watch since his elevation in 2022.

Anders Arborelius (Sweden), 75, Bishop of Stockholm

Appointed in 2017 as Sweden’s first cardinal, Arborelius is a convert to Catholicism in the overwhelmingly Protestant Scandinavian country, home to one of the world’s most secularised societies.

He is the first Swedish Catholic bishop since the Protestant Reformation and a staunch defender of Church doctrine, notably opposed to allowing women to be deacons or blessing same-sex couples.

Like Pope Francis, Arborelius advocates welcoming migrants to Europe, including Christians, Catholics and potential converts.

Mario Grech (Malta), 68, Bishop emeritus of Gozo

Born into a small village on the tiny Mediterranean archipelago of Malta, Grech is a peace broker and potential compromise candidate for the papacy.

He was secretary general of the Synod of Bishops, a body that gathers information from local churches on crucial issues for the Church — such as the place of women or remarried divorcees – and passes it onto the pope.

He had to perform a delicate balancing act, following Pope Francis’s lead on creating an open, attentive Church while acknowledging the concerns of conservatives.

Peter Erdo (Hungary), 72, Metropolitan Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest

An intellectual and respected expert in canon law, Erdo speaks seven languages, has published more than 25 books and is recognised for his openness to other religions.

But he has faced criticism for his ties with the government of nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose harsh views on migration clashed with those of the late Argentine pope.

Known for his enthusiasm for evangelism, Erdo — who grew up under Communism — is a conservative on such issues as gay marriage and divorcees who remarry.

Jean-Claude Hollerich, 66, Archbishop of Luxembourg

A Jesuit like Pope Francis, Hollerich spent more than 20 years in Japan, and is a specialist in European-Asian cultural relations as well as German literature.

Firm on dogma, the theologian is still open to the need for the Church to adapt to societal changes, much like the Argentine pope he was close to and for whom he served as an adviser on the Council of Cardinals.

Hollerich has advocated for the environment and has pushed for laypeople, especially young people, to have more involvement in the Church.

ASIA

Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines), 67, Metropolitan Archbishop emeritus of Manila

Tagle, Asia’s frontrunner for the papacy, is a charismatic moderate who has not been afraid to criticise the Church for its shortcomings, including over the sexual abuse of minors.

Fluent in English and active on social media, he is an eloquent speaker with self-deprecating humour and, like Francis, is a leading advocate for the poor, migrants and marginalised people.

Nicknamed “Chito”, he was made a cardinal by Benedict XVI in 2012 and had already been considered a candidate for pope in the 2013 conclave in which Francis was elected.

Charles Maung Bo (Myanmar), 76, Archbishop of Yangon

Myanmar-born Bo became the Buddhist-majority country’s first and only cardinal in 2015, appointed by Pope Francis.

Bo has called for dialogue and reconciliation in conflict-ridden Myanmar, and after the military coup of 2021 appealed to opposition protesters to remain non-violent.

He has defended the mainly Muslim Rohingya, calling them victims of “ethnic cleansing”, and spoken out against human trafficking uprooting the lives of many young Burmese.

He was head of the Federation of Asians Bishops’ Conferences (FABC) between 2019 and 2024.

AMERICAS

Robert Francis Prevost (United States), 69, Archbishop-Bishop emeritus of Chiclayo

A native of Chicago, Prevost was in 2023 appointed prefect of the powerful Dicastery for Bishops, which is charged with advising the pope on appointments of new bishops.

He spent years as a missionary in Peru and is the Archbishop-Bishop emeritus of Chiclayo in that South American country.

Made a cardinal by Pope Francis in 2023, he is also the president of the Pontifical Commission for Latin America.

Timothy Dolan (United States), 75, Archbishop of New York

A jovial, ruddy-faced extrovert with Irish-American roots, Dolan is a theological conservative, fiercely opposed to abortion.

The former archbishop of Milwaukee, he oversaw the fallout from a major sexual abuse scandal in the diocese.

In New York, amid shrinking Church membership, Dolan has reached out to embrace the growing Hispanic population, which is predominantly Catholic.

AFP